Tonight, while Europe is in deep sleep, some might have a recurring nightmare of two erratic leaders meeting up. For once, this dream will come true as they snore their way to world peace or total annihilation. Or will everything stay the same after Kim and Donald have a cup of tea? Neither of these scenarios is very likely: the situation on the Korean peninsula has been a stalemate for nearly 7 decades and even before that it was, pardon my french, a bloody mess. Let me explain.
Tonight, while Europe is in deep sleep, some might have a recurring nightmare of two erratic leaders meeting up. For once, this dream will come true as they snore their way to world peace or total annihilation. Or maybe everything will stay the same after Kim and Donald have a cup of tea? Neither of these scenarios is very likely: the situation on the Korean peninsula has been a stalemate for nearly 7 decades and even before that it was, pardon my french, a bloody mess. Let me explain.
Korea is relatively easy to invade: once you are over the Yalu river, which is its’ northern border to China, the land is mostly flat and easy to access. Hence over the years it was invaded by the Chinese, the Manchurians and, from Sea, the Japanese. During the last Japanese occupation, which lasted from 1910 to 1945, Korean language was forbidden, as was teaching of its history, and worship of Shinto temples made mandatory. When the Japanese lost the war, the United States were quick to draw an artificial border along the 38th parallel. During the cold war the opposing forces tried to get as many countries as possible to subscribe to their respective communist or capitalist ideology. The Northern part of Korea was under Soviet and later Chinese influence, while the south was ruled by a pro-American dictatorship. The US never had a real interest in South Korea, but it couldn’t let their allies down during the Korean war in 1950: if they did, it would send a strong signal to their other allies, who might think it wise to change sides. The Chinese weren’t (and still aren’t) prepared to fight for North Korea, but don’t want the Americans to control the entire peninsula.They support North Korea, partially because of a shared ideology, partially because they fear an influx of refugees if the North collapses. A unified Korea under American control would be too much to swallow, especially since the USA is also allied to Japan. Not that Japan and either of the Korea’s want anything to do with each other since the Japanese occupation: relations are frosty at best, especially since North Korea made it painfully clear that Japan is within range of their nuclear weapons.
As you can see, the situation is as explosive as the Middle East: each party have their history, each have their pride and conflicting interests. A unification of the Korea’s is highly unlikely: they not just have perpendicular ideologies, it would unsettle Japan and China, and then there is the pricetag: the cost of aligning the North to the South would put the reunification of east and west Germany to shame. Yet as long as both Korea’s exist, there is a source for conflict. Catch 22.
So tonight Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un will have their historical meeting – the first between a North Korean leader and a POTUS. They are both a caricature of diplomacy and leadership – hotheads with a short fuse who are in control of nuclear weapons.
Let’s sum up some of their recent achievements: Ronald ‘the Donald’ Trump recently pulled out of the Paris climate agreement, the Iran deal, and imposed import duties on steel from allied countries. He threatened to leave NATO and on a recent G7 meeting he antagonized every member of what would be the G6 if he were to leave that too. All to make America great again.
Kim ‘the rocket man’ Jong-Un is the latest offspring from the Kim dynasty. After he came to power in 2011 he continued his fathers’ and grandfathers’ line of conduct. He had several of his relatives killed: depending on which rumors you believe his uncle was fed to the dogs, roasted by a flamethrower or simply shot. Truth is he is as dead as his half-brother who was assassinated with nerve gas in Malaysia. The rest of the North Koreans shiver and starve while most of the meager GDP is being spent on nuclear bombs. He continues to antagonize everyone around him, even his only real ally: the Chinese.
Yet in the past few months Kim Jong-Un seems to have had some profound insights, evident in him hugging and walking hand in hand across the DMZ with South Korea’s Moon Jae-in. The meeting with Trump shows not just willingness to talk, but an actual active effort: after Trump had cancelled the summit, Kim sent a general to the white house with a letter pleading to keep the event on the agenda. Whether this apparent change of heart is a decoy for a hidden agenda or the beginning of a new era for North Korea – time will tell.
With the Norths’ nuclear sites in disrepair it’s not difficult for Kim to give in on Trumps’ demand to stop developing nuclear weapons. Giving up on nuclear weapons all together is a different kettle of fish: after 40 years of development at the expense of their own people, the Kim dynasty will not easily give up on their achievement. In fact, the collapse of the main nuclear test site may just be what caused Kim’s change of heart.